Good Bets Lose
Outcomes contain variance. Decisions contain logic.
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#mental-models
8 posts
Grade the Process, Not the Outcome
You don't control outcomes. You control the quality of the reasoning that produces them.
ReadRules Have Loopholes. Principles Don't.
Having a compass or a set of rules.
ReadWork Backward
The ruin cases are finite. The path forward isn't.
Read“Then What?”
“First-order thinking sees the move. Second-order sees the game.”
ReadStart With Failure
Avoiding stupid is easier than achieving brilliant
Read“Buffer Built-In”
“When the rope holds but you don’t”
ReadThen What Happens?
3 steps ahead
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