Most people start by asking what they want and how to get there.
Better question: What would guarantee failure?
This is inversion. It doesn’t find the perfect path forward. It eliminates the paths that reliably lead backward.
Risk management works this way. You don’t start by asking what could go right. You start by asking what could go catastrophically wrong, then build systems that prevent it. The upside follows more often than people expect, once the obvious disasters are off the table.
This applies to Bitcoin. Instead of trying to time your entry, eliminate what guarantees ruin: unmanaged leverage, coins on exchanges, trading on emotion.
The ruin cases are finite. The path forward isn’t.