“Then What?”

Most people think one step ahead.

You raise prices. Revenue goes up. Good decision.

But then what?

Customers leave. Reputation suffers. Competitors undercut you. Revenue was up for a quarter. Then it collapsed for a year.

First-order thinking stops at the immediate effect. Second-order thinking asks what happens next. And next after that.

You cut costs. Profit increases. But then morale drops. Talent leaves. Quality suffers. You saved money to destroy value.

The best decisions look past the obvious outcome to the consequences of the consequences.

First-order thinking sees the move. Second-order thinking sees the game.

What are you missing by stopping at step one?